Passenger demand for small aircrafts until 2050: design and application of a modelling tool to simulate future scenarios
The background of the study is the European Clean Sky 2 programme, aiming at developing innovative technologies to reduce emissions and noise levels from aircrafts, while simultaneously developing and strengthening a globally competitive aeronautical industry in Europe. The scope of the programme does also include Small Air Transport (SAT), which is expected to contribute to the connectivity of remote regions in Europe and the rest of the world.
The study provided an ATS level assessment and forecasts for Small Air Transport aircrafts, namely airplanes with passenger capacity between 9 and 19 seats and pressurized and unpressurized cabin compartment.
A modelling tool has been developed to provide (i) the assessment with respect to passenger volume, fleet and flights for the base year 2019 and (ii) results for future years from 2025 to 2050 in five years steps.
The main activities of the project have been related to:
- Review and analysis of available SAT concepts and potential business models;
- Design and development of the model for the estimation of demand for Small Air Transport aircrafts at European scale, supported by the related data collection and calibration process. The model is also accompanied by input and output interface, complemented with a user guide;
- Application of the model to forecasts future potential SAT demand for the reference scenario and two alternative scenarios by 2050;
- Analysis of European modelling results to evaluate the potential SAT demand for the rest of the world with a qualitative approach.
TRT led the project and covered all the activities related to the model design, development and application.
The subcontractor SEO Amsterdam Economics focused on the review of SAT concept and business models.
For more information:
- Official site of Clean Aviation programme: description of Small Air Transport Transversal Activity.
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)