Appraising passenger traffic on the Brenner Corridor

Corridor Munich-Verona – Study and analysis of the forecasted passenger traffic flows and the related offers of long-distance trains based on the future infrastructure

19p19 Brennero 3

This study was a modelling application targeted at forecasting future rail passenger demand on the Verona – Munich rail corridor.

The opening of the Brenner Basis Tunnel (BBT) is expected by the year 2030. Its effect will be to save more than one hour from rail travel time between Munich and Verona. The full completion of infrastructure should provide additional time savings by the year 2040. This study, using modelling tools, aimed at forecasting the additional rail passenger demand onto the corridor as effect of new rail supply in order to provide inputs for the design of long-distance rail passenger services on the corridor.

Four future scenarios were explored. All scenarios shared the same demographic and economic assumptions influencing the modification of the overall transport demand in the area. Then, each scenario considered a specific configuration of passenger rail services on the Corridor, especially in terms of frequencies and stops.

The forecasts were based on the results of the two models: the TRUST model used by TRT dealt with long-distance origin-destination pairs at NUTS3 level, while the regional demand was simulated in more spatial detail by means of the VMÖ 2025+ model used by the Austrian company TRAFFIX. The project was managed by EBP Schweiz AG.


19p19 Brennero 2


For more information, please check BBT Brenner Base Tunnel website

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Project Description

DB Netz AG


Davide Fiorello