Feasibility project of the mass transport system for the connection between the area of the railway station located in Latina Scalo and the city centre
TRTingegneria as member of the consortium formed by Tecnosistem (leader) and One Works (partner), has been commissioned to draft the Technical and Economic Feasibility Project – PFTE – for the public transport connection between the railway station (located in Latina Scalo) and the city center of Latina.
Within the project, TRTIngegneria is responsible for the preparation of the cost-benefit analysis and risk analyses. The Cost-Benefit Analysis evaluates, by comparison, different alternatives of the public transport lines’ routes through the calculation of their main economic indicators (Economic Net Present Value – ENPV and Economic Internal Rate of Return – EIRR). The basic approach of every evaluation is the comparison of different alternative scenarios against the reference scenario of no project implementation.
The analysis is conducted considering the MIT Guidelines for the evaluation of investments in public works (2017) and the recent Addendums for the submission of applications for access to resources designated for Rapid Mass Transport by Fixed Installations and for the evaluation of railway projects (2021). As required by the ministerial guidelines, the economic analysis is accompanied by the qualitative risk analysis and the quantitative risk analysis, that has been developed using the specialized software (@Risk).
The @Risk software employs Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical technique that involves running multiple simulations using random variables to generate possible outcomes for a decision or event. The quantitative risk analysis is enhanced with sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and their optimization. For the main statistical variables (e.g., investment costs, operational costs, benefits, etc.), the software allows choosing from numerous distribution curves and generates numerical and graphic outputs with the calculation of P90 and/or P80 and P50 probabilities for the results of the analyses conducted.