Rail Baltica transport model development and analysis

21p06 Rail Baltica Model banner

Implementing a multimodal transport network model of the Rail Baltica Corridor and appraisal of the passenger and freight transport activity onto the Corridor

Rail Baltica Global Project is the Baltic part of a rail transport infrastructure project with a goal to integrate the Baltic States in the European rail network. The expected core outcome of the Rail Baltica Global Project is a fully interoperable railway line of more than 870 km in length meant for both passenger and freight transport. Rail Baltica will be integrated into the TEN-T Core Network as part of the North Sea – Baltic Corridor.

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The study consists of two main activities. The first activity is the implementation of a multimodal transport network model of the Rail Baltica Corridor. The model covers in some detail (NUTS3 or even sub-NUTS3 zones) the area of the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) plus the neighbouring regions of Finland, Poland, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The rest of Europe as well as rest of the world regions are also represented in a more aggregate fashion. The transport model is a four-stage model, dealing with the estimation of generated demand, distribution, mode split and assignment to a multimodal network. The model covers both passenger and freight activity and is focused on the part of activity of interest for the planned rail infrastructure. All transport modes competing with rail are represented. Different rail services are explicitly modelled both for passenger (including Night-Train services) and for freight

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Supporting the implementation of the model, some surveys in the study area are carried out: a Stated Preference surveys to estimate parameters for the passenger demand model; a survey to collect information on the determinants of mode choice for freight transport; a survey to collect information on freight transport rates; a survey to collect information on freight terminals.

The second activity of the study is the application of the model to estimate the passenger and freight demand onto the corridor for three future time thresholds under alternative scenarios: a “do-nothing” scenario where the new infrastructure is not present; a “Base scenario” where the new infrastructure is built and there are services operated onto it; two alternative scenarios where the new infrastructure is built and alternative assumptions – diverse from those of the base scenario – are made regarding aspects like overall demand development, transport services, measures related to the EC Green Deal transport policy. The application of the model provides several outputs ranging from aggregated statistics to link-based traffic and including impact indicators on energy consumption and emissions.

The study is carried out by TRT with the support of PTV (DE), MDS Transmodal (UK), CSE COE (LV). TRT is the coordinator of the study and is responsible for the demand model (passenger and freight) as well as for the design of the surveys and the analysis of their outcomes.


Projects

Project Description

CLIENT
Rail Baltica AS

PERIOD
2021 – ongoing

CONTACT
Davide Fiorello
fiorello@trt.it